A common assumption in public debate is that a region with lower direct dependence on Middle Eastern energy should be less worried about conflict in the Gulf. At first glance, this view appears reasonable. If Europe imports a smaller share of its oil and gas from the Gulf than major Asian economies do, then Europe should, in theory, face less risk from instability in that region. Yet real-world policy behavior suggests otherwise. European governments, institutions, firms, and

The history of international politics repeatedly shows that public rhetoric and actual state behavior do not always move in the same direction. Governments speak in the language of identity, ideology, legitimacy, and moral principle, yet they often act through the language of survival, security, and material necessity. For students of international relations, this gap between discourse and practice is one of the most important realities to understand. It is especially visible